Foundations.
The vocabulary.
The concepts everything else stands on: momentum, dominance, funding, ATR, Sharpe, drawdown, liquidity. Answer-first explainers, each tied to how a rules-based crypto board actually uses the idea rather than the textbook abstraction.
17 notes · Foundations
One of these you own. The other owns a piece of you.
The asset versus the position: spot ownership against margined, funded, liquidatable perpetuals, why perp volume dominates the tape, and the three costs off the screenshot.
The chart shows demand. The schedule shows supply.
Vesting cliffs, linear unlocks, continuous emissions: how scheduled supply reaches the market, what unlock events reliably do and don't, and the calendar's defensive value.
Compute where the cliff is. Then stand well back.
The growth-optimal bet size and its violence: the formula, 50/50 odds of halving at full Kelly, zero growth at double Kelly, and why fractional is the only sane dose.
Survival first. Compounding is for the survivors.
The probability the game ends: ruin as an absorbing state, streak arithmetic at 1/2/5/10% risk, why losing streaks are scheduled, and crypto's three accelerants.
Up 50, down 50 is down 25.
The gap between average and compounded returns at the volatility where it becomes the main event: the half-sigma-squared rule, a fair coin losing 69% a year, leveraged decay.
Risk is losing money, not making it irregularly.
Sharpe with a fairer denominator: downside deviation only. Why right-skewed momentum profiles deserve it, and how the Sharpe/Sortino gap detects skew.
Return per unit of risk, flattered by the calendar.
Return per unit of risk, and the 20% flattery crypto's 365-day calendar adds to every annualized Sharpe: the definition, the failure modes, and the deflation we apply.
How far does it actually move? One number answers it.
Average True Range from zero: Wilder's formula, why 24/7 trading shrinks true range toward high-minus-low, percentage ATR, and its three jobs: stops, sizing, regime.
Three majors up, eighty alts bleeding: breadth is how you know.
The share of the board actually participating: the standard measurements, why breadth matters doubly in a one-factor market, and our dial's published breadth input.
Fix the loss first. The position is just division.
Risk-first sizing with the worked example: why volatility shrinks size, the portfolio-heat trap when correlations hit one, and the survival arithmetic behind small fractions.
Equities have industries. Tokens have stories.
Equities have industries; tokens have stories. The working taxonomy, what sector membership actually predicts, the diversification illusion, and the data-quality fine print.
A real mechanism, a real correlation, and a sample of four.
A real mechanism, a real correlation, and a sample of four: the supply-shock theory stated fairly, the confounders, the shrinking flow arithmetic, and the post-ETF divergence.
A fine thermometer, a terrible oracle.
One division with two distortions: the stablecoin denominator problem, the quality of summed market caps, what dominance readings have accompanied, and the joint read.
The chart shows the market cap. The obligation is the FDV.
Price times what, exactly: the low-float worked example, unlock cliffs and emission drips, the float-ratio habit, and why momentum screens attract exactly this failure class.
A poll where every respondent pays to vote.
The mechanism that anchors perpetuals to spot, the annualized arithmetic that makes 0.01% expensive, and funding as a paid poll of positioning worth watching from spot.
No news behind the candle. Just leverage meeting thin bids.
The forced-selling chain reaction behind crypto's newsless crashes: the mechanics, why this market breeds them, the famous episodes, and how to read a cascade on a chart.
The drawdown is the result. The return is the compensation.
BTC has lost three quarters of its value twice in a decade; alt drawdowns start at ninety percent. The base rates, the recovery curve, and what depth does to decisions.