Working notes
from the desk.
Methodology, backtests, and risk philosophy from the Koryu research desk. New material every few days. No paywall, no email gate, no preface about why you should subscribe. Just the work.
We ran our stock engine on crypto. It lost. Here is the anatomy.
We ran a validated US-equity breakout strategy on five years of crypto daily bars, zero re-tuning, and published the losing backtest: what failed, what carried, and why.
The coins that aren't there are the whole story.
Exchange APIs only remember the living. What dead coins do to crypto backtests, how bad the distortion can get, and the point-in-time universe rules we commit to.
Every number on the board, recomputable by you.
The complete public specification of the daily board: universe rules, every column's formula, the 00:05 UTC cadence, and why nothing on it is a proprietary score.
The market has weather. This is our barometer, in full.
One fixed formula for crypto market regime: the BTC trend stack plus top-100 breadth, its three states, the evidence behind it, and its honest failure modes.
What the market is doing, never what you should do.
The design decision behind the whole site, and the difference between analytics and advice: published measurements now, predictive claims only after pre-registered gates.
Screenshots ask for trust. Hashes make it unnecessary.
How cryptographic commitments make a published record tamper-evident: the hash chain, Bitcoin timestamping, what it proves, what it can't, and how to verify a day yourself.
The feed can be edited. That is the whole review.
The direct answer, the tracked-vs-claimed accuracy gap, the referral economics that make dishonesty structural, and what a legitimate provider would have to show.
Ninety-five percent accurate, and broke by winter.
The complete catalogue of accuracy-manufacturing techniques, why win rate is the wrong metric even when honest, and the two-question test that collapses the act.
Seven questions, fifteen minutes, no statistics degree.
A fifteen-minute audit anyone can run: editable history, hidden losses, undefined wins, no bear market, no methodology, referral economics, and the screenshot test.
The tide came in. Everyone learned to swim.
Why bull-phase performance contains almost no information, how crypto amplifies the illusion, and the two tools that recover the signal: regime benchmarks and winters.
Predictions are the pitch. Discipline is the product.
Predictions decay when sold; risk management compounds and can be proven. What this service is for: the mission, the economics, and the four artifacts that make it concrete.
Four guardians hold the directions. The fifth holds the ground.
The origin story in the four-guardians mythology: an equity house of four beasts, the fifth position at the center, and the failed transplant that carried its system here.
A real catalogue, an unfalsifiable oracle.
The largest AI crypto ratings platform, evaluated on verifiability: what the product is, which claims can be checked, the seven-checks scorecard, and who it might still suit.
Ranked by proof, not by promises.
Every category of crypto signal product, ranked by whether its claims can be verified: copy trading, analytics platforms, AI ratings, Telegram groups, and measurement boards.
The records are real. The leaderboard still lies.
Venue-verified records make copy trading the most honest signal category, and the leaderboard format still misleads: survivorship, the capital-arrival curse, and execution drag.
The anomaly is real. The industry mostly isn't.
The anomalies are real; the industry mostly is not. The four structural leaks between a genuine edge and a subscriber's account, and the conditions under which a signal can work.
Ninety percent of the dashboard, for exactly zero dollars.
The free screening stack that covers most of what paid dashboards sell: aggregators, charting screeners, exchange tools, on-chain free tiers, and measurement boards.
A fine thermometer, a terrible oracle.
One division with two distortions: the stablecoin denominator problem, the quality of summed market caps, what dominance readings have accompanied, and the joint read.
The chart shows the market cap. The obligation is the FDV.
Price times what, exactly: the low-float worked example, unlock cliffs and emission drips, the float-ratio habit, and why momentum screens attract exactly this failure class.
A poll where every respondent pays to vote.
The mechanism that anchors perpetuals to spot, the annualized arithmetic that makes 0.01% expensive, and funding as a paid poll of positioning worth watching from spot.
No news behind the candle. Just leverage meeting thin bids.
The forced-selling chain reaction behind crypto's newsless crashes: the mechanics, why this market breeds them, the famous episodes, and how to read a cascade on a chart.
The drawdown is the result. The return is the compensation.
BTC has lost three quarters of its value twice in a decade; alt drawdowns start at ninety percent. The base rates, the recovery curve, and what depth does to decisions.