Which weather is it?
Fixed rules, one answer a day.
What Strategy v2.3 reads
Candidate · in shadow · holds no capitalThe candidate’s two gates are mutually exclusive by construction, so they collapse to three states: a five-model hidden Markov ensemble decides RISK-ON; the v2.3 short gate decides RISK-OFF (a downtrend held five straight days, BTC below its 50-day with the 20-day below too, plus two stand-down floors: Fear & Greed at 15 and a DVOL capitulation cap); and neither means NEUTRAL. Nothing here is traded; the record that decides whether it earns the job lives on the shadow page, with the full reasoning in the Strategy v2 research article.
The published dial
Attested · recomputable by handRISK-OFF: stack false or breadth < 25%
NEUTRAL: otherwise
Breadth: % of the board's coins above their own MA50
The two read the tape differently today. The published dial prints RISK-OFF, which folds a flat market in with a falling one (BTC's stack is false, or breadth below 25%), while the candidate's ensemble is not convinced enough to fire a leg, so it holds cash (NEUTRAL). The dial commits on the deterministic stack; the candidate waits for its own five-model confirmation before it fires a leg, so where they differ, the gap is the reading rather than an error.
Data: Binance USDT spot daily klines (completed UTC days) + CoinGecko market-cap ranking. Measured through 2026-10-22 (completed UTC days). Formulas: the dial methodology. The 20-day history shows each day’s archived daily snapshot (the values published that day; hover a day to see whether it is attested). A day without an archived snapshot is the published formula recomputed over public bars, with breadth measured against today’s board, so it is indicative. The BTC stack is exact throughout. A regime reading is a description, not a forecast. Decisions are yours.
Questions
What is the Koryu regime dial?
A rules-based risk-on / risk-off instrument for the crypto market. It combines BTC's trend stack (close above the 50-day average, 20-day above 50-day) with market breadth (the share of the board's coins above their own 50-day average) and prints one of three states: RISK-ON, NEUTRAL, or RISK-OFF.
What are the exact thresholds?
RISK-ON requires the BTC stack to be true and breadth at or above 40%. RISK-OFF prints when the stack is false or breadth is below 25%. Everything between is NEUTRAL. The thresholds are fixed and published; they do not get tuned quietly.
Why are two regimes shown, and which one is real?
Both are real; they answer different questions. The dial is the published instrument: fixed thresholds, breadth included, recomputable by hand from public data. The v2.3 regime is what our candidate strategy runs on: a five-model hidden Markov ensemble for the long side, and for the short side a downtrend held five straight days with two stand-down floors (extreme fear, capitulation volatility). The candidate is in shadow and holds no capital, so the dial is what the site publishes and attests. Where they disagree, the disagreement itself is the information.
Why do the two ever disagree?
Mostly over the difference between not-bullish and bearish. The dial prints RISK-OFF whenever BTC's stack is false, which folds a flat market in with a falling one. The v2.3 regime splits them: NEUTRAL means neither leg fires and everything sits in cash, RISK-OFF means the downtrend is confirmed and the short book is live. A market that has bounced above its 50-day average but has not repaired its 20-day reads RISK-OFF on the dial and NEUTRAL on v2.3.
Is the 20-day history a record of what you published?
For every day with an archived daily snapshot, yes: the history shows the values that snapshot published, and hovering a day says whether it is attested. Koryu has published the dial since 2026-07-13. A day without an archived snapshot is the published formula recomputed over public bars, which anyone can reproduce but which we never printed at the time, and its breadth is measured against today's board, which drifts, so it is indicative rather than exact. The BTC stack is exact for every day shown.
Is a regime reading a prediction?
No. It is a description of current conditions under fixed rules. Regimes can flip the day after any reading, and the instruments will simply describe the new state. They carry no instruction and no forecast. Decisions are yours.