The next strategy
earns trust in public first.
Before any rule change is adopted, the candidate runs here in shadow: computed daily from live data, next to the current rules, with every disagreement logged. The spec is frozen. No capital follows it. If it degrades outside the backtest, this page is where that shows.
The next rule set, computed every day beside the current one: a frozen spec, marked to live prices, with no capital attached.
One shared account, marked daily: the long sleeve, the short sleeve, or cash, and never two at once. The same engines the backtest runs on, so every mark is a deterministic function of the frozen rules and public prices.
Today's reading
data through 2026-09-03 (UTC daily closes) · run 2026-09-04 · gates agree
How the two sleeves split
the one shared account above, decomposed: which sleeve carried it, and what the short leg paid or earned in funding
This starts at inception and is never backfilled from the backtest: a shadow that borrows the backtest’s history is the backtest wearing a costume. It is computed each day by the same engines the backtest runs on, so it is a deterministic function of the frozen rules and public price data. It will be flat whenever the gates say cash, which is most of what a regime filter does.
The book today
What the rules would be holding right now, chosen at the last 12-day rebalance. Not today’s ranking: between rebalances those differ, and the held book is the honest answer.
Long book (majors, top-5 by 60d momentum)
| coin | entry | amount | held | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | $93.72 | $20,000 | 13d | +10.90% |
| BNB | $688.84 | $19,089 | 1d | +5.28% |
| ETH | $2,391.92 | $19,089 | 1d | +4.83% |
| BTC | $78,338.03 | $20,000 | 13d | +3.74% |
| LINK | $11.99 | $20,000 | 13d | -1.31% |
Short book (top-5 by bear score)
Empty: the bear gate is off.
Event log
Every position the shadow has opened since inception, newest first. A log of what the frozen rules would have held, not a recommendation.
| opened | closed | sleeve | coin | entry | amount | price | funding | net | why closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | — | long | BNB | $688.84 | $19,089 | +5.28% $1,008 | $0 | $970 so far | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — | long | ETH | $2,391.92 | $19,089 | +4.83% $922 | $0 | $884 so far | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 2026-09-02 | long | ADA | $0.2291 | $20,000 | -12.18% -$2,436 | $0 | -$2,516 | rebalance |
| 2026-08-21 | 2026-09-02 | long | AVAX | $7.84 | $20,000 | -8.22% -$1,643 | $0 | -$1,723 | rebalance |
| 2026-08-21 | — | long | SOL | $93.72 | $20,000 | +10.90% $2,181 | $0 | $2,141 so far | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | long | BTC | $78,338.03 | $20,000 | +3.74% $749 | $0 | $709 so far | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | long | LINK | $11.99 | $20,000 | -1.31% -$262 | $0 | -$302 so far | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-27 | short | ALLO | $0.4084 | $20,000 | +16.50% $3,301 | -$7 | $3,254 | rules changed (v2.2) |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-27 | short | HEI | $0.1106 | $20,000 | +22.78% $4,557 | $10 | $4,527 | rules changed (v2.2) |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-27 | short | SYN | $0.2212 | $20,000 | +35.78% $7,156 | -$76 | $7,040 | rules changed (v2.2) |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-25 | short | DEXE | $35.51 | $20,000 | +86.71% $17,342 | -$13,257 | $4,004 | funding budget |
| 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-27 | short | WLD | $0.3883 | $20,000 | +15.76% $3,152 | -$47 | $3,065 | rules changed (v2.2) |
The rules the shadow follows
Fixed, mechanical, frozen before the shadow started: the same contract the backtest was measured on. Nothing here is traded.
The full frozen spec (gates, seeds, universes, frictions) lives in strategy v2.0 in shadow. Decisions are yours.
The divergence log
48 shadow days observed, 25 divergences between the gates. Divergent days are the test: they are where the candidate either earns its keep or gets sent back.
| date | v1.0 gate | v2.3 ensemble | bear | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | ● | ● 4/5 | · | agree |
| 2026-09-03 | ● | ● 4/5 | · | agree |
| 2026-09-02 | ● | ● 4/5 | · | agree |
| 2026-09-01 | ● | ● 4/5 | · | agree |
| 2026-08-31 | ● | ● 4/5 | · | agree |
Data: Binance USDT spot daily klines + perp funding (completed UTC days). The full candidate spec, every backtest number, and the caveats: strategy v2.0 in shadow. The spec (gates, seeds, universes, frictions) is frozen before the shadow starts; any change restarts the clock. A shadow book is a log, not a recommendation. Decisions are yours.
The challenger: a more patient short
Challenger · in shadow since 2026-07-19Same single book as the candidate, with the short side made deliberately more patient: it shorts only after the downtrend has held for seven straight days, and banks a short once it is 20% in profit. Our validation gate found this FAMILY real but refused to bless any exact recipe, so this conservative version was pre-committed rather than the sweep's peak, and it must earn adoption here, in public, under a frozen spec. Every publish first reproduces the tested result ( 1.28 Sharpe through 2026-07-17; this build: 1.28). Nothing here is traded. Decisions are yours.
Questions
What is the Koryu shadow?
A public test period for the next version of our rules. The candidate (currently v2.3: an ensemble regime gate for longs plus a confirmed-downtrend short book with fear and volatility stand-downs) is computed every day next to the current rules, and both outputs are published here. No capital follows the candidate until the shadow record has done its job.
Why publish a strategy before adopting it?
Because backtests flatter. A frozen spec running forward in public, divergences and all, is the only evidence that survives contact with live data. If the candidate is worse than the backtest suggested, this page will show it, and that is the point.
What are the two gates?
The current gate is deterministic: BTC above its 50-day average with the 20-day above the 50-day. The candidate gate is a majority vote of five hidden Markov models on BTC trend features, refit monthly, strictly causal. Days where they disagree are logged as divergences: those days decide which gate earns the job.
Is the shadow book a recommendation?
No. It is a log of what a frozen rule set would hold, published for verification. It is not investment advice, and short books in particular carry funding costs and liquidation risks the log only models. Decisions are yours.